Saturday, November 16, 2013

Planting the Football Seeds

Each time a major competition rolls around the football community gets a new list that shows which countries have climbed to the top of football greatness, but does it really seem that way? The FIFA world rankings have been criticized over and over again by the football community, so it's no surprise the recent top seeds are currently on the firing line. The current top teams for the 2014 World Cup group stage will be: Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay, Switzerland and hosts Brazil. Now, before judging the teams and saying how messed up the ranking system really is, one has to realize this is all just based on a formula! Points = match value x importance x ranking of opponent x strength of confederation x timeliness. This is a very general look at the way teams get points. However, the point I'm making is that it's all based on numbers and not team analysis. We all think it's absurd that certain countries are ranked higher than others, but instead of stating the obvious, the football community needs to stop criticizing the formula and start thinking of a solution. How can we rationalize how good a team truly is? One way is to look at the history, style and performance, which are difficult to measure by just numbers alone. Some criticisms regarding the current formula state that goal difference, home advantage and the stakes of a match are also not taken into account. Rightly so, all these factors should definitely be considered since they directly influence that value of a team. Now, I'm no mathematician nor are the heads of FIFA, so how do you get that message across to them? If FIFA changes the formula then as a kind of political ploy they would be admitting the ranking system is flawed and we all know they will not submit to something like that. However, there is a concept that I think could put all these criticisms and flawed calculations a little bit to rest. What if instead of just implementing a formula, FIFA could set up a kind of committee that would also take into account different factors that can't be rationalized through numbers alone. They could look at the current values and reach a consensus on the other factors as a means to come up with a reasonable ranking. Of course, this could be biased and based on misinterpretations, but to be honest the critics have also been quite biased themselves in their own ranking, so it's something that will have to be taken into account and worked on. All the critics seem to repeat the past history of the top countries and all they look at sometimes are the squads on paper, but they don't ever mention recent results. One has to realize that, with club football, the chances of getting international play are very minimal at times. Basically, the data that FIFA works with is based on a very small sample, so it can be skewed. Sometimes teams have more games with weaker opponents, which could have an influence on the ranking. Still, all these football fans criticize the system without giving any solutions. Let's be real and realize that the ranking system won't change through our constant nagging, so why not have FIFA keep their hierarchy while trying to fix the problem through a type of committee analysis. In the end though, I feel that if your team is good enough to win it all then it shouldn't matter what pot they're in for the group stage draw. Yes, everyone wants to draw Switzerland as their top team in the group, but no matter what teams are in the first two pots, aren't they typically the same teams anyway? The argument people make is that their side could be drawn against the top team like Spain or Germany, but why not get that draw. Show the world that your side have what it takes by facing a tournament favorite. Stop hiding behind a ranking system that we all know is flawed and start measuring your team's success by how they perform when the time comes for the world stage to shine again.

No comments:

Post a Comment