This week The Balkans erupted. Not literally though, as Bosnians celebrated their country's first qualification for next summer's World Cup in Brazil. After watching the celebrations in Sarajevo I couldn't help, but imagine what would happen if they were to actually win it all. As the new inductee, Bosnia will face a challenge they might not be ready for. With the likes of Brazil, Spain and Germany just how difficult is it for a country with a population of a little over 3 million like Bosnia to make it all way? For starters, they will have to rely on a good deal of luck in the group stage. Currenlty, Bosnia is ranked 18th in the FIFA World Rankings and since 13 countries before them are already qualified they will most likely be put in the second basket. That means they will definitely have to face one of the big powerhouses early on. The group stage can extinguish any hopes of seeing your country longer than 3 games. Basically, the first group game is the opener, so all the jitters and tactics come to the forefront. Teams that lose the first game are already at knife point. Count two loses in a row and your last game is pretty much just for honor as you exit the tournament. For the sake of the blue and yellow, lets imagine our inductees making out of the group stage after being even across the board with a win, loss and draw. Great success! Well, since the probability will be that the powerhouse in the group finished in first the Bosnians will have to have a first place finisher in the round of sixteen. Going back to the 13 countries in the rankings before the Bosnians, that challenge could be anywhere from Brazil, being the toughest, to England, (just my opinion) being the weakest,. Now, I always believe in the twelfth man helping guide a team through the toughest of challenges, but at this stage all these teams have that advantage. In the end, it's going to have to come down to an outstanding performance by the collective with a star or two outshining the opponent. Manchester City's Edin Dzeko and Stuttgart's Vedad Ibisevic are the front runners to shine along with youngster Miralem Pjanic and Captain Emir Spahic bringing the team together. Maybe Bosnia can pull off the same feats as their Balkan neighbors Croatia pulled in the '98 World Cup, where Davor Suker won the golden boot to propel the Croats to 3rd place. Still, many have tried and only so few have made it onto the quarter finals in the cup's entire history. Out of all the countries that participated over 35 have never made it past the round of sixteen. This includes Greece, Serbia, Columbia and Russia to name a few. However, let's say the Bosnians pull off the upset and manage to surpass a team like England, who have their own doubts, especially after Joey Barton's little rant about them not having any chance in Brazil. At this point in the tournament, the teams on repeat, as I like to call them, use their experience to compete in the tournament. Teams like Germany, Italy and Brazil have made it to the quarterfinals at least nine times throughout history. Their secret is part experience and part talent. They have the right formula for producing the top players with each generation. When looking at the former, they play in tournaments so much that they know how to rotate players and maximize their talents throughout the entire competition. Therefore, an inexperienced team like Bosnia might have the talent, but lack the strength at this point in the tournament. I know any Bosnian fan will disagree and say their team are motivated and have a fire inside that can't be matched. Still, that fire will have to challenge a tournament favorite, which can only mean one of the biggest upsets in the Cup's history. Let's say they make the impossible happen and now have only one team in their way to make it to their first final in their first ever tournament. Crazy right, but remember it's just to show how difficult it is to lift the cup. If there are no other dark horses or surprises that make it this far I predict that Bosnia would have to face either Brazil, Germany or Argentina. There are too many variations, but there's a good chance these teams will make it this far. At this point I have no more possibilities for Bosnia. Only a fan could dream of making it past this brick wall and it's entirely possible, but not in my head. Therefore, no matter how far the Bosnians make it in the World Cup one has to remember just how many obstacles stand in the way. Qualifying for the first time is a giant leap. Winning for the first time after qualifying for the first time, well then, the laws of gravity no longer apply.
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